One advantage older investors have is that we have been there, done that, and seen about everything — usually several times. It came as no surprise to me whatever — other than the timing — to hear that Brazil has decided to forbid foreign ownership of land and may confiscate all property purchased back as far as 1988. I burst into (no doubt reprehensible) laughter, turned to dear Charles, and exclaimed, “Guess what Brazil just did?!” My wise old sailor has been around the world a time or two and replied immediately and blandly, “Nationalized something.” Score another one for the tactician.
How many times do banana republics (and others) have to “nationalize” foreign investments before it seeps into the less avaricious portions of investors’ minds that perhaps it isn’t a good idea to start businesses, construct factories, build up the infrastructure, and hire and train locals while trusting generals in comic opera uniforms to abide by contracts and their pledged word? Okay, so Brazil’s top contender for Presidente is Dilma Rousseff, and elections are a scant two months away, but her gender and wardrobe aren’t as important as her ability to employ the politics of envy in order to play to her “something for nothing” crowd and please friends in high places.
The more I think about the timing, the more nervous about Brazil I get. What are those people thinking? Do most of the people in Brazil own land now? No. Were most of them in line to benefit directly from jobs with foreigners? No, but there was big money on the line for the top 5%. Was there a slight chance that small amounts of reals from enormous taxes and expenditures might filter down to those cheering now? A slight one. Does anyone care about the peasants? Only as voters and if they had any sense generals and juntas wouldn’t let the peons vote. Mexico has done quite well for decades with a variation on that theme. The ones with the most to gain, are those who already have the most, which is the way the world usually goes…which is what baffled me. Unless they think they can raise their own financing, why not hold off for a bigger pay-off?
What seems to me a bigger threat is the likelihood that politicos in Argentina, Belize, and Nicaragua might be inspired to go and do likewise, and some of us here in this very Bar have money on the line scattered around Latin America.
Brazil is an enormous country, rich in mineral deposits, with the potential to develop immense agricultural acreage at the optimal point in history when greatly increased populations are beginning to stagger into the late nineteenth century in terms of sufficient income to purchase more and more highly prized foodstuffs…which isn’t going to make the least bit of difference so long as the political structure in Brazil remains a combination of feudalism and socialism. One expert estimates that between 2006 and 2008 alone foreign investors dropped $2.5 Bn on land. That is certainly a nice chunk of money to confiscate by, um, repatriating the land, but the thought that anyone other than politicians and whatever the Brazilian equivalent of the haciendado class will benefit is risible. The rich will get richer, the poor will get poorer, and Brazil can sit there until the system changes…if it ever does.
Those enormous deep water oil deposits off the coast? Any country willing to confiscate foreigners’ cane fields won’t have any difficulty with the concept of nationalizing the rigs or 90% of the output, although I wouldn’t bet on Brazil’s ability to hire qualified personnel to keep the oil flowing afterwards. Brazil just turned off the money spigot and will learn that a big slice of pie is vastly superior to raw ingredients on the counter, no cook, and no oven. They will find out that “Brazilian land for Brazilians” means the status quo for most of the population and makes as much economic sense as doing their own dental work at home with nothing more than a rock. I don’t know what the average per capita income is in Brazil, but I doubt that it is much. Chuckle. I doubt that anyone is worrying about the peasants. (The things I do for you people! Wanting to know the precise term, I started Googling, and ended up on a terrorist site! For the record, amongst those who write in English the preferred term is “landless peasants,” not “peons,” or something quaint in Portugese.) To nobody’s surprise, half of all the arable land in Brazil belongs to 1% of the inhabitants, many of whom speak Deutsch.
Those who are not in the business have no conception of what it takes to turn scrub land into even pasture land, far less fertile fields. We spend a lot of time eying Potash here in the Bar, although it has certainly lost a lot of luster with me after the Brazilian ploy. From long experience, my surmise is that land currently being prepared for cultivation in Brazil will revert to scrub land in short order; I am quite certain that Brazil has vegetation similar to our smut grass, cacti, cedar, mesquite, broomweed, and others which engulf untended land in a very few years and return it to the wild within a decade or so. It is a constant battle to keep such pests at bay, and all of them devour nutrients and water. The mess over the sacred Cedar Waxwing in Central Texas placed a moratorium on cedar abatement programs for about a decade, and hundreds of thousands of acres are now covered thickly with cedar (which led to immense increases in allergic reactions) and mesquite. It turned out that Waxwings can live very happily many places and most of them migrated, I suppose because there isn’t nearly as much insect life left. Insects like crops and livestock, and there isn’t enough grass left to feed many cows and Boer goats.
Sure, beef is up and the demand is up, but range land requires fertilization, control of brush and weeds, and planting better quality grasses chosen to thrive in a specific climate. Crop land requires fertilization, control of brush and weeds, irrigation in many cases, erosion control following plowing, planting, cultivating, harvesting, and off-season maintenance. The last I heard the topsoil in the jungles which are being cleared is so thin that perhaps two crops can be grown before it reverts to wasteland. Land that is nourished and cared for needs to be planted in rotation and allowed to lie fallow on schedule. Unless the farmer puts as much back into it as he takes out, yields diminish rapidly — and then there are the Greens howling against pesticides, insecticides, herbicides, and artificial fertilizers.
The sub-equatorial climate of Brazil permits two crops a year. That may double the output, but it also doubles all of the ancillary costs other than land purchase. A diligent man can raise enough crops on an acre of land to feed a family…but I wouldn’t hunt for tenant farmers in the cardboard shacks crowding the cities. Perhaps 20% of the cane currently under cultivation is on land owned by foreigners, but can the indigenous personnel left continue operations? Ex-pat labor isn’t dumb, and the loss of income may well lead to increased anger against foreigners and/or an increase in activity of The Shining Path sort. One traditional solution is enslavement of the resident Indians.
Brazil will find it cannot go it alone. It simply does not have the know-how, the personnel, or the investment capital, and it doesn’t have my sympathy, either. “Brazilian land for Brazilians” now costs a great deal more, but the source of revenue dried up, and their rulers did it all by themselves.
I have little sympathy for Agribiz and they will get off quite lightly losing their investment at this stage — unless they know that there are always “exceptions” in dictatorships that create Blagojevich-type expenses, and doubtless they can hire a native front man. I rather think it is probably quite easy to work with Hugo Chavez if sufficient money changes hands under the table and on paper a firm is owned by Garcia, Rodriguez, Chavez, and Hernandez. Oh, sorry…that’s one of the loopholes Brazil just closed. I’m wondering again how those who made a hostile bid for Potash are feeling about now, because the premise was that Brazil would become the new bread basket of the world and require lots of it…
I’m glad that I passed up a rather attractive-appearing silver mining operation elsewhere in Souse America because between drug wars, the occasional coup d’etat, manana, and the chances of nationalization that didn’t sound like a good place to send my precious money even if the proffered rewards at present are quite appealing. I wouldn’t invest in a casino in Cuba, either, if an opportunity arose; any bunch that can run an excellent agrarian system into the ground isn’t my idea of a good candidate to provide a thriving industrial economy, although I admit cheerfully that no one in Cuba has nationalized American hotels and casinos in over fifty years, but only because Fidel and Raul have been in charge and don’t hold with Americans and their evil activities. Brazil didn’t even manage to attain a good agrarian economy.
Maybe I just need to get with the program…”American land for Americans!” We could nationalize everything that belongs to foreigners, particularly the Chinese, Japanese, and others holding large amounts of our debt, and proceed to “USA buildings for USA-uns.” Grab the cash, the inventory, and subsidiary holdings, and then take back the land given to Indians. Gee, maybe we could even repatriate all the land suitable for agriculture and oil leases the Feds have grabbed…”40 acres and a mule,” anyone?
Regards,Linda Brady TraynhamWhiskey & Gunpowder
August 31, 2010
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Holy underwear! Foreigners buying our land! We have to protect our phoney baloney jobs here, gentlemen! We must do something about this immediately! Immediately! Immediately! Harrumph! Harrumph! Harrumph!
It makes no sense. It’s like doing something for the sake of doing something. No foresight. Amazing. Like watching a worldwide train wreck. Amazing.
(…off to reread Cabbages and Kings)
I have seen different communications on this matter. From the latest I have read it appears that it will not be retroactive. That it will affect only farm ground. Foreigners will still be allowed to purchase plots but the size will be limited to 3,800 hectares. There will be some sort of approval board or something to that effect as well as an appeals process. It was mentioned that the main reason for this legislation is to prevent China from buying up their land and doing to Brazil what China has done in Africa.
Article about Brazil Land policy
LOL, Hey, PPD,
If you are peter pan’s dad, how old are you? While I understand it is absolutely amazing that politicians will “do something” just for the sake of doing it, but “that’s what they do”. It’s genetic. I know, I know, it looks stupid to people that know better, but for the feeble minded among us (those that expect others to take care of them) it looks like they ARE “doing something”, just for THEM. This is kind of long but I refer you to the following song lyrics from a song. As peter pan’s dad, you should be old enough to not be surprised by what politicos do. Remember, “you knew they were a politician when you took them in”. ;-D
“The Snake” was a hit for Al Wilson, reaching #27 in 1968. Below are the complete lyrics to The Snake.
On her way to work one morning
Down the path along side the lake
A tenderhearted woman saw a poor half frozen snake
His pretty colored skin had been all frosted with the dew
“Oh well,” she cried, “I’ll take you in and I’ll take care of you”
“Take me in oh tender woman
Take me in, for heaven’s sake
Take me in oh tender woman,” sighed the snake
She wrapped him up all cozy in a curvature of silk
And then laid him by the fireside with some honey and some milk
Now she hurried home from work that night as soon as she arrived
She found that pretty snake she’d taking in had been revived
“Take me in, oh tender woman
Take me in, for heaven’s sake
Take me in oh tender woman,” sighed the snake
Now she clutched him to her bosom, “You’re so beautiful,” she cried
“But if I hadn’t brought you in by now you might have died”
Now she stroked his pretty skin and then she kissed and held him tight
But instead of saying thanks, that snake gave her a vicious bite
“Take me in, oh tender woman
Take me in, for heaven’s sake
Take me in oh tender woman,” sighed the snake
“I saved you,” cried that woman
“And you’ve bit me even, why?
You know your bite is poisonous and now I’m going to die”
“Oh shut up, silly woman,” said the reptile with a grin
“You knew damn well I was a snake before you took me in
“Take me in, oh tender woman
Take me in, for heaven’s sake
Take me in oh tender woman,” sighed the snake
1968, what a year, gotta love the smell of napalm in the morning. LOL Enjoy, if you can find the music, it’s a hoot.
I’m just curious as to how you seem to be credentialed in, by what tend to be, liberal life paths, from decidedly liberal institutions and have come to this point in life, where you appear to be…hhhmmmnnn…..somewhat (LOL) juxtaposed to the PTB and the general sludge in life that seem to want to shackle us to their will, while they “take care of us”. Feudalism anyone? How did you get here? I know that’s nosy and my mama did teach me better, but I haven’t asked you how old you are so she probably wouldn’t be too mad, yet. But, you sound like a person that I would find very interesting, especially your story and journey to this point, politically. I was a psych major until I figured out it was all BS and all the professors presented with most of the symptoms in the texts. I thought I was going to help people and make a reasonable living, but it was all about diagnosing and having clientele so you could milk the insurance for money, otherwise you couldn’t make a living at it. You had to skeeze the system and basically contribute to the pt’s problems (continued diagnosis and therapy) so you could make money, so I just finally said FI, and quit before my internship. It finally dawned on me over a long period of time (late 20′-late 30′s…slow learner) that no one else is going to take care of me…..except me! If you have time to share, I’m sure I’m not the only one interested in how a counselor and philosopher got from point L to point C.
Another article discussing Brazilian farmland ownership
Can a country that nationalized the losses of the banking industry be far behind?
I´m Brazilian. I´m a farmer at Mato Grosso do Sul. Six months ago this was some big news, but this subjet is almost forgotten by now, and nobody talks about it anymore. It´s old news.
I’ll be glad to take the 40 acres, and I like mules.
Absolutely, Peter Pan’s Dad! Those dastardly foreigners came in and spent money, created jobs, upped exports and….what’s wrong with that? It doesn’t get people elected? If there is anything Brazil needs it is a good, socialistic “safety net” it can’t pay for. Loved your post. Regards, Linda
Hi, Rogerio, and thanks for the input. It was news to some of us up here! We would love to hear about what you grow and what methods you use. What effect do you think this will have on the economic future of Brazil? We had visions of your country becoming the new bread basket that would feed rising populations in the rest of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) and were excited for you. Have you tried burning off vegetation as a supplement to commercial phosphates? Composting? If you grow cane can you interplant with a nitrogen-fixing legume you could plow under? Sometimes we plant alternate rows of cane and corn, which makes a fine feed for animals. Best of luck, Linda
Thanks, TripodXL. I also thought of the fable of the scorpion that cadged a ride across the river, but bit the toad carrying him. When asked why, he replied, “It is my nature.” There are those who will destroy themselves in order to kill an enemy or anyone else. Linda
Score a big one for Onza Libertad! We’ve got a big head start on destroying ourselves through taxation, regulation, graft, corruption, socialism, the EPA, and insider politics, and here orchids don’t even grow on trees. Please believe that my concern was far more for the future of Brazil than for property losses to foreign investors who know the risks. If I were allowed to set up a country my goal would be a true agrarian society with as little technology as necessary (flush toilets are so nice…) where most of the people were “small holders,” those with enough land to support their families well and room for their children to purchase land later. If you could have what America was about 1825…I would settle for that myself joyously.
Dear Onza Libertad: In case that wasn’t perfectly clear, what I would choose for MY country is what we had nearly 200 years ago, but there are too many people and too few live close to the land. I only have about a hundred hectares, but life is so GOOD raising cattle, goats, and horses, with W&G for my window to the world and interesting correspondents. Regards, and please write again, Linda
OMR: If you’re right and the purpose is to keep China from buying up all the resources, I could approve of that. I worry about Australia, which China is stripping of mineral resources rapidly.
Crew…interesting responses, particularly since you know how hard I work to stay abreast of what is going on. Still, at 2 1/2 acres to the hectare, 3800 hectares isn’t anything that most can afford, and there are always those who find ways to spread large purchases over a variety of front men. My idea of “Brazilian land for Brazilians” is what I was talking to Onza Libertad about, and I don’t think the chances of that are high. Until the per capita income is raised and the desire is there to save, acquire land, and work it, “BLFB” is just another campaign slogan.
I don ‘t know alot about Brazil, but my guess is that it doesn’t have the infrasturcure of a major developed country. The US has grown to greatnest due to entrepenures who build out the distribution and storage systems in this country. The railroads, the hiways, the grain storage, the shipping ports, the cold storage, and mfg, and ability to transport fresh foods 1000′s of miles. The Vanderbuilts, Cargills, JP Morgans, Andrew Carnegies, built this county. Sure they made fortunes, but the invested those fortunes and the country flourished.
If Brazil limits the influx of capitol, and the import of knowledge and know how The BRIC, may become the RIC.
In another life I was looking at what it would take to buy land in Brazil. I had several neighbors that farm during the summer in the states and then farm in Brazil during the winter. It spreads your risk around. You are right Steve, Brazil dosnt have the infrustructure that the USA has. Although they are catching up quickly. Brazil is the largest exporter of soybeans in the world. The Japanese were the first to invest in Brazil back in the early 80s. When Jimmy Carter put a grain embargo on the Russians the Japanese figured we werent a reliable source of food. The Japanese figured they better have a plan B. The Brazilians have the know how and the labor to do it themselves. There are a lot of Brazilian farmers, large ones too. What they dont have is a reliable banking system. Thats actually what puts the USA head and shoulders above most other countries is that a person with an idea can get funding for his idea much easier (in the past) than people in other countries. This is less true in Europe but more so in other places. This is where outside companies fit in Brazil. They provide the capital. You can make a lot of money farming in Brazil if you have the cash and a partner that is native to Brazil.
Dear Steve & OMR: Nice posts, guys, and thanks for covering the issues. If Agora’s expert is right, foreign cash can’t be fronted by a native any more.
Glad you asked! I have copied your question-laden missive and will retire to e-mail to answer it because I don’t like writing in this little box. All will be revealed!
Laughingly yours, because I thought no one would ever ask,
I consider Ferfal of “Surviving in Argentina” fame a friend and it’s amazing the difference in the data from the “Media” and someone that is on the ground and living it.
Please send me a copy of the response your sending to Tripod. Better yet, write a series of autobiographical articles. If those won’t fit the tone of W&G, Texas Ring, or Mesh, create a blog of your own.
How old am I? How old does my body feel? How old does my mind feel? How old do I feel when I see my oldest son (Peter Pan himself) working like a man? My oldest daughter switching from cute to beautiful? Maybe it’s not age. Maybe I’m just tired. It wears on me thinking of the mountain of public debt I’m facing or, more likely, leaving to my kids. Maybe we’ll just default, ruin our credit and convince morons to stop lending money to governments. Lend to producers instead.
So there you go. Old enough to feel old. Young enough to be optimistic.
PPD…you’re so wonderful, and I’m talking about what you write and do, not inviting me to talk about myself, although I’m working on telling TripodXL that there has never been a liberal bone in my body, even when I was young and gay and we were doing the 1959 Texas version of “La Boheme.” We were just funnin’ since we always intended to grow up to be affluent, Conservative, honest, and principled. Oh, but it was fun dabbling in the arts and feeling safely rebelious, and there wasn’t even a Mimi to die on us…
The last birthday my father had, I asked him if he feels any different from when he was in his 20s. He is in his middle 60s now. I asked this cause I pretty much still feel the same way that I did when i was 12 and Im probably about as mature too. Anyhow he said that he didnt really feel any different he finds that he just cares a lot less lol.
Linda, you make a lot of assumptions that might not be true. The US gov owns most of Government Motors, large chunks of the financial system, and has talked about taking on ownership of large amounts of foreclosed homes and renting them back out to their previous owners so that they don’t have to move out. Then we talk about the fact that the US gov owns about 98% of ALL land in Alaska since it’s statehood, with several other states having similar situations, just lower percentages. They are already starting to eat and digest it’s health care system. The US gov has been acquiring huge amounts of mostly previously private assets, just through a variety of means besides nationalizing them. What makes you think that the leadership of the US has not already set it’s sites on acquiring it’s lands? They won’t hand it out 40 acres and a mule though. To do so would be to loosen their control of American food production, which they want more of not less.
It’s already in the planning, welcome to Amerika comrades.
I’ve known my father for three decades now. I know him to be loving, thoughtful, introspective, careful, considerate, frugal and hard-working. He and mom have been married forever. I’ve never known my father to miss church, to miss work, or to miss what he aims his gun at. I’ve seen him harvest deer. I’ve seen him let the deer run past. He taught me how to catch and clean fish, find the good persimmons, throw a ball and put on a roof. He’s cleaned up oil in Alaska (Valdez), mined coal in Illinois and served in the military. He used to program games on our Commodore 64. He can fix anything. Do anything. Read and understand anything. He can even break a horse for crying out loud! He has always been there when I need him. My father is a real man. He doesn’t even get poison ivy…it gets him.
Years ago I beat him at arm wrestling. That was the first and only time I saw him feel old. I wish I could undo that.
Dad reads this site. I’m sure I’ll hear about this from him. He’ll probably tell me this post has nothing to do with governments in Brazil making bad decisions.
Dear Peter Pan’s Dad’s Dad: Moment of grateful silence with goose bumps. I suggest strongly that you print out your son’s letter and post it proudly. What an encomium. If anyone out there didn’t know Peter Pan’s Dad’s Dad is my idea of a truly great man and father, and we’d be honored if he’d “father” us when we need it. My dad was a lot like that. My dear Charles is a lot like that.
One of life’s great rules is to work for and towards what we want and not envy others, but a great many will envy you your father, PPD, and your father a son like you. PPDD, he and I correspond, and I like and admire your son, too, and on top of that he gave you gorgeous grandchildren. Thank both of you for being examples. We need that in this world. Linda
Behind every great many Is a great woman. He and mom have been married forever. What an awsome tribute to a father. I only pray I have done as well. These are the things that we aspire to, a live wll lived and well done. You can just feel it oozing out of the short note.
Linda, please do not write on something which you have not confirmed the source. As your assumptions are not correct, so are your conclusions.
OMR is correct as he seems to have good sources on this subject.
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Thanks to the tireless efforts of the Federal Reserve, currency in circulation is up $72.5 billion in the last year - which equates to $234 for every man, woman and child in America. And after rifling through his wife's purse yielded fruitless results, The Mogambo Guru has launched an all-out investigation to find his share. Read on...
With so much turmoil and political strife throughout the world, it can be difficult to realize how bright the future of technology is. Luckily, Stephen Petranek hasn't lost sight of that. Today, he describes seven important stories that will shape the future... and how a few savvy investors can make a killing in the process. Read on...
The Affordable Care Act creates a new health insurance marketplace (the exchange). But because of the great uncertainty about what buyers will enter the market and who will buy what product, the law creates three vehicles to reduce insurance company risk. John Goodman explains why this is such a dangerous proposition...
The biotech industry has dominated the market so far this year; and early investors in this sector have practically won the lottery. But with such an incredible run up, could this bull market be nearing exhaustion? Greg Guenthner investigates, and offers some sage advice for investors willing to take a chance. Read on...
Generally speaking, gold miners are bad businesses. They bury perfectly good cash in the ground and tend to issue lots of shares just to stay afloat. So when one comes along that actually turns out to be a good business, it's important to take note. Chris Mayer has found just such a company. Read on...