The latest deficit projection from the Congressional Budget Office was conveniently revealed just prior to the close of business on Friday.
“Why so?” You ask suspiciously.
“Because,” we respond in a hushed tone.
The CBO’s latest numbers reveal that President Obama’s proposed fiscal 2011 budget would add $9.7 trillion to the national debt over the next 10 years. The White House projection is only slightly less staggering – $8.5 trillion.
Further, the CBO projects the national debt will be 90% of GDP by the end of this decade – higher than the 83.4% recorded at the end of fiscal 2009 last fall. We’re 100% certain this comment will elicit the customary response: “Look at Japan, its debt is 170% of GDP…and it’s been running massive deficits for years!”
To which we can only sigh and respond: “Exactly.” Then get back to our film in which we hope to illustrate the long-term deleterious effects caused by the “crowding out” effect, when governments spend their citizens’ future wealth…way ahead of schedule.
“We told you two months ago,” our economist-in-residence Rob Parenteau also revealed late on Friday, “we thought Greece would not default, it would begin to implement government spending cuts and tax hikes and there would be a backup fiscal assistance facility put in place for the region in the event bond auctions began to fail. So far, this is precisely how the scenario has played out.”
So far, so good.
But “the next act gets tougher to predict,” he cautions. “Greece and other countries now face falling private-sector incomes – that is, after all, the direct and immediate result of higher taxes on businesses and households and lower government expenditures. Unless the trade deficits of these nations can swing sharply into surpluses (as lower domestic incomes lead to less import demand and lower costs of production lead to higher exports), private debt defaults will now start to multiply and cascade through the system.
“Last week, Moody’s placed four Greek banks on downgrade watch. This is just the start – the fiscal retrenchment has only just begun to take effect. By taking these steps to avoid a public debt default, we would suggest these economies are now poised for more private debt defaults.
“We believe private investors do not yet get this connection, but it will be made very clear in the months ahead. Latvia, with a GDP collapse of nearly 25%, will become the next poster child of the region in this regard.”
Addison Wigginfor The Daily Reckoning
Addison Wiggin is the executive publisher of Agora Financial, LLC, a fiercely independent economic forecasting and financial research firm. He's the creator and editorial director of Agora Financial's daily 5 Min. Forecast and editorial director of The Daily Reckoning. Wiggin is the founder of Agora Entertainment, executive producer and co-writer of I.O.U.S.A., which was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival, the 2009 Critics Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature, and was also shortlisted for a 2009 Academy Award. He is the author of the companion book of the film I.O.U.S.A.and his second edition of The Demise of the Dollar, and Why it's Even Better for Your Investments was just fully revised and updated. Wiggin is a three-time New York Times best-selling author whose work has been recognized by The New York Times Magazine, The Economist, Worth, The New York Times, The Washington Post as well as major network news programs. He also co-authored international bestsellers Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt with Bill Bonner.
Today, Ray tells you how to profit from curing cancer.
The US in the midst of an energy revolution, but it hasn't come easily. It's been a long time in the making, and the only reason it's happening is because of technological breakthroughs in oil production. Today, Ray Blanco explains why the next step in this energy revolution is improving seismic technology. Read on...
Social media stocks have been beaten and left for dead since investors started selling in September. But are they poised to take a ride on the current end-of-year rally train? Greg Guenthner explains why, despite looking bruised and bloodied, you shouldn't count out social media just yet. Read on...
Thanks to America's shale boom, there has been plenty of "black gold" unleashed on the market as of late. But as that story progress, there's also a "new gold" that investors may be overlooking... and it is vitally important to the fracking process and the production of new oil wells. Matt Insley explains...
It's interesting to listen to politicians' assessment of the U.S. government. Many believe it's a functional system of "self-government" that gives back as much as citizens are willing to put into it. Of course, as Sheldon Richman explains, U.S. citizens do not actually govern themselves, but are rather ruled by those who suggest they do. Read on...
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was asked recently on Bloomberg TV and scoffed at Bitcoin.