01/30/08
Latest GDP figures — 0.6% for Q4, and for all of 2007, a paltry 2.2%.
Considering the GDP deflator is so obviously rigged, because PPI and CPI numbers are so obviously rigged, it's safe to say we're in recession now. It might be mild, it might be severe, who knows? (The IMF is predicting 1.5% growth this year, but again, that's factoring in a bogus deflator.) The point is, we don't have to wait for the National Bureau of Economic Research to do make its six-months-in-the-rearview-mirror declaration. We're in a recession. End of story.
So how panicked is the Fed? We'll have a very good idea when its rate pronouncement comes at 2:15 PM EST sharp. Watch this space.
Dave Gonigam
Treading a fine line between contrarian thinking and conspiracy theory, Dave Gonigam explores the nexus of finance, politics, and the media for Agora Financial's 5 Minute Forecast. He joined kindred spirits at Agora Financial in 2007 after a 20-year career as an Emmy award-winning writer, producer, and manager in local TV newsrooms nationwide.
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