Greg Guenthner

I was expecting a relatively quiet morning.

I was wrong.

As I was compiling my notes earlier today, gold futures started to tumble. They had been slowly drifting lower overnight, giving back about $10 by 5 a.m. But it was the action at $1,450 that bothered me. After it crossed below this level, the floodgates opened—sending gold futures sharply lower. By 7:30 a.m., gold had coughed up $40, hitting a low of $1,427.

Push to the Brink

I know it might not feel like much—especially with the April crash still fresh in your mind. But this move lower puts gold below critical short-term support.
Since mid-week, price has fallen from the high $1470s to the $1,420s. These are levels we haven’t seen since April 25.That’s when gold began trading in a nice, orderly horizontal channel.

Just a couple of hours ago, it broke through its price floor on strong volume. Not a good sign if you’re a gold bull…

Here are two important takeaways from all of this:

First, it’s important to note that the consensus opinion amongst the chart watchers has been that gold would probably have a fairly mundane summer. I’ve generally agreed with this position. Aside from a little volatility here and there, I was expecting gold to wander sideways for some time after its massive drop. Clearly, it has other plans. You have to adjust your thinking here and prepare for the possibility of another leg lower.

Next, the recent action in gold is a great lesson on dip buying—or buying any asset just after it takes a nasty fall. “Buy when there’s blood in the streets” is one of the most misunderstood investment axioms ever. Every asset needs time to recover after a crash. I’m talking about a significant amount of time—not just a few days or weeks.

At this point, too many investors are convinced gold can move higher from here. You’ll want to buy when everyone agrees that gold is cooked. To paraphrase the great technician Walter Deemer:

When it’s time to buy, you won’t want to…

You May Also Like:


Gold’s New Rally Begins Now

Greg Guenthner

In the blink of an eye, summer just got a lot more interesting. Try your best to ignore a sagging stock market for a minute. Today, I want to talk about the intense action we’re seeing in gold and gold miner stocks—and how you can play it.

Greg Guenthner

Greg Guenthner, CMT, is the managing editor of The Rude Awakening. Greg is a member of the Market Technicians Association and holds the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Recent Articles

5 Min. Forecast
How the Swiss Could Set Off a Financial Avalanche

Dave Gonigam

There have been quite a few disappointing numbers in the global economy recently. But as these numbers are just economic "snowflakes" building toward a financial avalanche. All you need is one to push it over the edge. And as Dave Gonigam explains, the deciding snowflake may come from Switzerland. Read on...


Addison Wiggin
One World, One Bank, One Currency

Addison Wiggin

After the 2008 financial crisis, little could be heard over the deafening cries of "mission accomplished." And while the Fed's massive QE program seemed to work, the question remains: for how long? Addison Wiggin explains why the next round of QE will fail miserably, paving the way for the IMF to step in with something called "special drawing rights." Read on...


Addison Wiggin
Profit from Global Warming, Even if You Don’t Believe In It

Addison Wiggin

Global warming is one of the most debated subjects of the last few years. But regardless of whether you're a "true believer" or a merely an unconvinced skeptic, there are significant ways to make serious money from this controversial topic. Today, Addison Wiggin brings you three of them. Read on...


Don’t Drink the Tap Water (It’s Not What You Think)

Chris Campbell

Under the auspices of benefiting public health, the government has been administering medication to you and your family for generations. But is it really necessary? Or worse... Could it actually be harmful? Chris Campbell takes a closer look at this, and other personal health decisions the feds don't trust you to make...


One Metal to Watch in the Current Commodity Crash

Greg Guenthner

Commodities have been in freefall lately. Everything from corn to soy beans to precious metals is headed lower right now. But is this just a brief downturn, or is this the beginning of a long-term trend? Greg Guenthner explains, with a closer look at one specific precious metal that could snap back violently before heading lower. Read on...


Extra!
What to Hold When the U.S. Economic Blimp Deflates

Jim Mosquera

The inflation vs. deflation debate is a heated one. Heck, it almost brought Peter Schiff and Harry Dent to blows. But at the core of this debate is a common misunderstanding of the nature of both inflation and deflation. Today, Jim Mosquera seeks to explain each... and which one the U.S. is more likely to experience. Read on...