Comments on: Bear Market Surprise http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/ Covering the economy, global markets and world politics. Sun, 22 Nov 2009 06:01:02 -0600 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: axbucxdu http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-5303 axbucxdu Sun, 12 Apr 2009 05:10:20 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-5303 Sorry Mr. Bonn, I responded twice to your comments since April 7 but this idiotic format for whatever reason won't post my submission and I'm not going to modify it...I see no need...obviously DR's computers are programmed to think otherwise... Sorry Mr. Bonn,

I responded twice to your comments since April 7 but this idiotic format for whatever reason won’t post my submission and I’m not going to modify it…I see no need…obviously DR’s computers are programmed to think otherwise…

]]> By: axbucxdu http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-5011 axbucxdu Fri, 10 Apr 2009 00:59:17 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-5011 Moderator: Do this board work at all? Moderator: Do this board work at all?

]]> By: tony bonn http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-4729 tony bonn Tue, 07 Apr 2009 19:00:21 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-4729 i don't see a phony war when congress authorizes 787 billion usd for "emergency" spending on top of 850 billion usd passed for tarp in the previous year and then 1.150 trillion usd for buying worthless assets....plus a multi-trillion usd deficit....that is quite a phony war....(not that the government is not lying but someone sure is raising a ruckus if he is lying) even during the great depression the majority of people had jobs....it's too bad that alphabet doesn't read the unemployment numbers which show chronic high levels of unemployment claims and the job loss reports showing massive net job losses for several months....those folks don't make it to the mall and the restaurants... and if you haven't looked at the dow in the past 6 months and not noticed a problem, then someone has a problem with the mentality of "if it doesn't affect me then it must not be a problem." nice...really nice. i don’t see a phony war when congress authorizes 787 billion usd for “emergency” spending on top of 850 billion usd passed for tarp in the previous year and then 1.150 trillion usd for buying worthless assets….plus a multi-trillion usd deficit….that is quite a phony war….(not that the government is not lying but someone sure is raising a ruckus if he is lying)

even during the great depression the majority of people had jobs….it’s too bad that alphabet doesn’t read the unemployment numbers which show chronic high levels of unemployment claims and the job loss reports showing massive net job losses for several months….those folks don’t make it to the mall and the restaurants…

and if you haven’t looked at the dow in the past 6 months and not noticed a problem, then someone has a problem with the mentality of “if it doesn’t affect me then it must not be a problem.”

nice…really nice.

]]> By: axbucxdu http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-4717 axbucxdu Tue, 07 Apr 2009 17:08:38 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-4717 Russell's Quote: "But now, you see the restaurants are still full. People are still spending money. They may be worried and they may be beginning to save, but there’s no sense of urgency." I can vouch for this. On several recent weekends, I had the unfortunate duty of driving my wife to the local shopping malls here (central eastern PA); Becuase of the crowds Russell mentions, it typically took me more than ten minutes just to locate a parking space. Restaurant parking lots were parked as densely as the malls. I see two possibilities: Either this "depression" is crystallizing very locally, in places like CA, NV, FL, AZ, ya know, all the usual suspects, or this economic thing ain't happening. The financial press, including Bonner, can utter jeremiads all they want but until the retail outlets and restaurants are ghost towns on a Sunday afternoon I'll maintain my doubts. Till then all of this press chatter is merely coverage of a "phony war." Also quoth Mr. Bonner: "Things that don’t work need to be destroyed…so that things that do work can make use of the capital more efficiently." and of course the new motto: "“The free market rarely takes you where you wanted to go…but it always takes you where you ought to be." These statements testify to why we have no free market. The economic sector that time and again doesn't work, that is farthest from using capital efficiently, is the government. Fat chance we have of seeing governments destroyed...But in a truly free market, that's what ought to be... Russell’s Quote: “But now, you see the restaurants are still full. People are still spending money. They may be worried and they may be beginning to save, but there’s no sense of urgency.”

I can vouch for this. On several recent weekends, I had the unfortunate duty of driving my wife to the local shopping malls here (central eastern PA); Becuase of the crowds Russell mentions, it typically took me more than ten minutes just to locate a parking space. Restaurant parking lots were parked as densely as the malls. I see two possibilities: Either this “depression” is crystallizing very locally, in places like CA, NV, FL, AZ, ya know, all the usual suspects, or this economic thing ain’t happening. The financial press, including Bonner, can utter jeremiads all they want but until the retail outlets and restaurants are ghost towns on a Sunday afternoon I’ll maintain my doubts. Till then all of this press chatter is merely coverage of a “phony war.”

Also quoth Mr. Bonner: “Things that don’t work need to be destroyed…so that things that do work can make use of the capital more efficiently.” and of course the new motto: ““The free market rarely takes you where you wanted to go…but it always takes you where you ought to be.”

These statements testify to why we have no free market. The economic sector that time and again doesn’t work, that is farthest from using capital efficiently, is the government. Fat chance we have of seeing governments destroyed…But in a truly free market, that’s what ought to be…

]]> By: tony bonn http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-4714 tony bonn Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:47:08 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-4714 the present stock market rally is a chimera built upon ignorance and desperation.....i predicted in 2008 (and have blogs to prove it) that the market needed to go to 3000-5000 and was duly shocked to see bonner and others echo (quite independently i am sure :D) that thought.... the ignorance (and stupidity) fueling the stock rise is based upon the pollyanna notion that the american icarus can rescue the economy and that he can do so with trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see....the g20 claptrap last week was enough to gag the entire central valley of california but it made people feel that the worst is behind us....bad investment and capital destruction caused the mess and more debt will not cure it - especially when the debt represents more mal-investment if you can call pork investment.... the desperation stems from the fact that no one wants sub-1 percent returns by staying in cash, government paper, etc. this is why gold was rising until the treasury crushed it last week....the us government is eye ball deep in market manipulation - especially of gold since it is an alternate to currency and government debt and directly influences interest rates..... when are people going to wake up to the commercial real estate debacle to be buried under the rug by the press? as more bad news surfaces the party will crash. no, the bear rally is built on fumes and fantasy and when the nincompoops realize that peter pan is a fantasy then they will be facing another year of devastating losses as the hot air escapes in a frenzy.... pull out your old 78s for a rousing chorus of happy days are here again... the present stock market rally is a chimera built upon ignorance and desperation…..i predicted in 2008 (and have blogs to prove it) that the market needed to go to 3000-5000 and was duly shocked to see bonner and others echo (quite independently i am sure :D ) that thought….

the ignorance (and stupidity) fueling the stock rise is based upon the pollyanna notion that the american icarus can rescue the economy and that he can do so with trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see….the g20 claptrap last week was enough to gag the entire central valley of california but it made people feel that the worst is behind us….bad investment and capital destruction caused the mess and more debt will not cure it – especially when the debt represents more mal-investment if you can call pork investment….

the desperation stems from the fact that no one wants sub-1 percent returns by staying in cash, government paper, etc. this is why gold was rising until the treasury crushed it last week….the us government is eye ball deep in market manipulation – especially of gold since it is an alternate to currency and government debt and directly influences interest rates…..

when are people going to wake up to the commercial real estate debacle to be buried under the rug by the press? as more bad news surfaces the party will crash.

no, the bear rally is built on fumes and fantasy and when the nincompoops realize that peter pan is a fantasy then they will be facing another year of devastating losses as the hot air escapes in a frenzy….

pull out your old 78s for a rousing chorus of happy days are here again…

]]> By: sierra http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-4704 sierra Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:12:40 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-4704 We must remember that during the last "great depression" there was no, "unemployment insurance" and no Social Security protection for older Americans (and disabled etc.). This has tended to "mitigate" the more dire circumstances of today's unemployed and elderly retirees. I remember something like "Relief" payments back then which were tiny but did help in a minuscle way. This time we will have to go a long way before the underlying mitigating economic forces such as the "social safety net" becomes un-operative. Let's just hope we will not get there. Though I've been very , very pessimistic about this economy since the early nineties... Unless we allow the "too big to fail" to fail, we will wallow in the mud of economic mediocrity and reward those who failed over those who daily struggle to just keep their chins above water. I'm amazed at the statisticians that wish to glaze over the publics' eyes on how things are better than they seem...Have they gone "shopping" for their families lately?? A case in point in MIchael Mandel of Business Week....April 3, 2009. Families are hurting big time with the escalation in food prices...which, how convenient, are not included in the general CPI..numbers.....Hoodini Economics...that's what I call it! We must remember that during the last “great depression” there was no, “unemployment insurance” and no Social Security protection for older Americans (and disabled etc.). This has tended to “mitigate” the more dire circumstances of today’s unemployed and elderly retirees. I remember something like “Relief” payments back then which were tiny but did help in a minuscle way.
This time we will have to go a long way before the underlying mitigating economic forces such as the “social safety net” becomes un-operative. Let’s just hope we will not get there. Though I’ve been very , very pessimistic about this economy since the early nineties…
Unless we allow the “too big to fail” to fail, we will wallow in the mud of economic mediocrity and reward those who failed over those who daily struggle to just keep their chins above water.
I’m amazed at the statisticians that wish to glaze over the publics’ eyes on how things are better than they seem…Have they gone “shopping” for their families lately??
A case in point in MIchael Mandel of Business Week….April 3, 2009. Families are hurting big time with the escalation in food prices…which, how convenient, are not included in the general CPI..numbers…..Hoodini Economics…that’s what I call it!

]]> By: JMR ManDribble http://dailyreckoning.com/bear-market-surprise/#comment-4703 JMR ManDribble Tue, 07 Apr 2009 16:09:20 +0000 http://dailyreckoning.com/?p=14399#comment-4703 This is why any portfolio should include physical stores of whiskey and tobacco along with the obvious physical holding of gold and silver coin. The cash is for contracts due. Bravo, Mr Bonner! This is why any portfolio should include physical stores of whiskey and tobacco along with the obvious physical holding of gold and silver coin. The cash is for contracts due. Bravo, Mr Bonner!

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