The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) — the club of 34 Western industrial democracies — figures China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2016. So would end a run that began in 1871, if The Economist’s start date is to be believed.
Of course, the OECD wonks performed their prognostications the usual way — projecting current trends far into the future. Thus can they predict an average 3% annual growth in GDP from now until 2060.
“None of these forecasts is set in stone,” admits OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria, hedging the org’s bets. “We know that bold structural reforms can boost long-term growth and living standards in advanced and emerging-market economies alike.”
That is, if politics allow for “bold structural reforms.” One can only imagine what he might have in mind… or whether a vision for what’s next is necessary at all to make such a statement.
The preceding article was excerpted from Agora Finacial’s 5 Min. Forecast. To read the entire episode, please feel free to do so here.
Addison Wiggin is the executive publisher of Agora Financial, LLC, a fiercely independent economic forecasting and financial research firm. He's the creator and editorial director of Agora Financial's daily 5 Min. Forecast and editorial director of The Daily Reckoning. Wiggin is the founder of Agora Entertainment, executive producer and co-writer of I.O.U.S.A., which was nominated for the Grand Jury Prize at the 2008 Sundance Film Festival, the 2009 Critics Choice Award for Best Documentary Feature, and was also shortlisted for a 2009 Academy Award. He is the author of the companion book of the film I.O.U.S.A.and his second edition of The Demise of the Dollar, and Why it's Even Better for Your Investments was just fully revised and updated. Wiggin is a three-time New York Times best-selling author whose work has been recognized by The New York Times Magazine, The Economist, Worth, The New York Times, The Washington Post as well as major network news programs. He also co-authored international bestsellers Financial Reckoning Day and Empire of Debt with Bill Bonner.
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