A New Meaning to "Four More Years"

141 years down… four to go.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) — the club of 34 Western industrial democracies — figures China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy by 2016. So would end a run that began in 1871, if The Economist’s start date is to be believed.

Of course, the OECD wonks performed their prognostications the usual way — projecting current trends far into the future. Thus can they predict an average 3% annual growth in GDP from now until 2060.

“None of these forecasts is set in stone,” admits OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria, hedging the org’s bets. “We know that bold structural reforms can boost long-term growth and living standards in advanced and emerging-market economies alike.”

That is, if politics allow for “bold structural reforms.” One can only imagine what he might have in mind… or whether a vision for what’s next is necessary at all to make such a statement.

Addison Wiggin

The preceding article was excerpted from Agora Finacial’s 5 Min. Forecast. To read the entire episode, please feel free to do so here.