07/03/09 St. Louis, Missouri
The stock market is closed today, so I have to wonder why banks are open… But, they are, so we carry on… There’s lots of talk about regarding the Jobs Jamboree that printed yesterday, so let’s get this started!
Well, well, well, what do we have here? It certainly looks like all those sounding the “all clear horn” have some egg on their collective faces this morning, eh? The egg thrower is the Jobs Jamboree that took place yesterday… Recall that I told you about how the forecasters had job losses pinned at -365,000? Well, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported job losses to be -467,000, which is far worse than that rose-colored glasses -365,000… But wait! If you act now, we’ll double the order! OK, I’m just having some fun with infomercials… But what I’m getting at is the fact that the BLS was at it again, folks! The BLS added 185,000 jobs to that -467,000! Again… The BLS seems to believe that there are businesses starting up in the depths of a recession that would amount to 185,000 new jobs being created! Really? Come on… Of that 185,000 jobs the BLS added, 31,000 were allocated to Construction Jobs… Which may or may not have happened, but wouldn’t it be better to wait-n-see, without affecting the markets this way?
OK… So… The “actual” real number was -652,000… I say that because, at sometime in the dark of night, when no one is paying attention, the BLS will make an adjustment to the overall unemployed number, and take all these jobs they created out of thin air, and remove them from the overall number… They will admit they were wrong, but not in public! Hey! I didn’t want to be in public, you threw me out in public!
So… As I stated yesterday, this has been the “lost decade” for jobs in the U.S. We now have approximately the same amount of people with jobs now that we had in May of 2000…
All the flag wavers for the recession being over have gone back to their padded rooms! This is why I wanted so badly for currencies to drop the link with stocks, because I truly feared a stock sell off that would be very bad…. I know, I know, it hasn’t happened yet, but it could be happening right now before our eyes!
All this government intervention is choking the patient they were trying to heal! Speaking of which, I was reading this new weekly e-letter that comes to me called, “Conversations With Casey” which, is Doug Casey, and old friend of ours here at EverBank World Markets… These are very interesting conversations, as Doug takes a question and just hammers home his thoughts… Well… Since I was mentioning the Government Intervention, it reminded me of his last letter, when he touched on this subject… Let’s listen in to what Doug Casey…
“The point I’m making is this: You’ve heard the old saying that history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes? I’m afraid that for many reasons, the government is doing just about everything possible to push the economy over the edge. First of all, the government is much more powerful than in the 1930s. They are going to make exactly the same mistakes – but bigger this time.
They are going to wind up destroying the currency.
It’s probable that Americans will end up in a war, for a number of reasons.
What we’re looking at is something that’s going to be long, dismal, and really unpleasant – much worse than what happened in the ’30s and ’40s.”
Well… All this rot on the unemployment data’s vine, was not good for the currencies, and precious metals. This “new revelation” that the U.S. economy is still in shambles, caused the risk takers to head for the hills… Take profits and retreat to fight another battle on another day. The currency massacre at the hands of the Jobs Jamboree was widespread… I don’t think I saw A currency that survived….
The good news for currency holders though is the fact that while every currency was sold, the kingpin, Big Dog, euro held on to the 1.40 handle… Of course now that I’ve said that, it will fall below 1.40 for sure! The other thing going on in the overnight markets is the fact that the high yielders which saw the most selling yesterday, were able to recoup about 1/2 of their losses in the overnight trading.
The euro was supported somewhat by the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting where interest rates remained unchanged, and ECB President Trichet, gave no indication that rates would be moving lower any time in the near future. Trichet also tried to stir the banks in the Eurozone to “play their part in generating an economic recovery”… How would that do that, you ask? Well… Trichet pointed to the 442 Billion euros that the ECB made available for the next 12 months to Eurozone Banks back in June (reported here of course!) and believes that amount to be all that’s needed… So… No more rate cuts… No more stimulus… Make it work darn it!
Woops! There it goes… I just looked over at the currency screen, and saw the euro slip below 1.40! Told you I would jinx it!
So… With the U.S. stock market closed today, the markets will be paper thin once London closes their books and heads to the pubs… Wild swings can occur during these pre-holiday, Friday afternoons, when the currencies won’t pick up again until Sunday night, when Japan come back online…
Speaking of the stock market… Yesterday’s Jobs Jamboree caused some problems for stocks too, driving the S&P 500 down to its third-straight weekly loss.
OK… With the markets thinned out… And the data cupboard emptied out this week, I don’t have too much more to talk about today… So, with that in mind, I thought I would talk a bit about the 4th of July…
I’m a Yankee Doodle Dandy
A Yankee Doodle, do or die
A real live nephew of my Uncle Sam
Born on the Fourth of July
OK… I wasn’t born on the 4th of July… But I always get a kick when I hear that song. It just puts a smile on my face, like a Cheshire Cat! It always reminds me of my dad, who was a great patriot, and someone that would be as upset as I am at the direction this country is being taken… But, that’s not what I’m talking about now… I’m talking about the 4th of July!
WE THE PEOPLE!
I think that the Gov’t has forgotten that the Constitution is about WE THE PEOPLE! In case you’ve forgotten:
We the people of the United States, in order to form a more perfect union, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility, provide for the common defense, promote the general welfare, and secure the blessings of liberty to ourselves and our posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America.
I sure hope these “Tea Parties” going on all over the country tomorrow, get back to supporting the Constitution!
Chuck Butler
Chuck Butler is President of EverBank® World Markets and the author of the popular Daily Pfennig newsletter, which is reposted here at The Daily Reckoning. With a career in investment services and currencies extending over 35 years, Mr. Butler oversees all aspects of customer service and the trading desk for EverBank World Markets. A respected analyst of the currency market, Mr. Butler has frequently made appearances or been quoted by the national media. These include the Wall Street Journal, US News and World Report, MarketWatch, USAToday, CNNfn, Bloomberg TV, CNBC, and the Chicago Tribune. Mr. Butler was previously the Chief International Bond Trader and Director of Risk Management for Mark Twain Bank, and has held significant positions in the investment industry since 1973.
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