03/20/07 - An Unprecedented Speculative Spree
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Last year set new records everywhere: records in stock prices, records in mergers and acquisitions, records in private equity deals, record-low spreads, record-low volatility. Manifestly, there is not the slightest check on borrowing for financial speculation. Dr. Richebächer wonders, what can stop this speculative binge? Read on…" 02/01/07 - Corporate America to the Rescue?
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The Good Doctor is back - and still wondering why our friends at the Fed seem to think that the U.S. economy is 'sound' - even though all the signs seem to be saying otherwise. Read on…" 12/13/06 - Monetary Anarchy
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "It is an old wisdom that the scale of the boom excesses determines the severity of the following economic readjustment. But what will the coming correction hold for the U.S. economy after the fall of the housing market?" 11/14/06 - Suicidal Trade Deficit
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Looking into 2007, the greatest uncertainty is whether the U.S. housing bubble will end in a hard or a soft landing. A bust would have severe adverse implications for the world economy…"
10/26/06 - Restructuring the U.S. Economy - Downward
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "After yesterday's announcement that the Fed will not be raising rates for the third straight month, everyone assumes it's because the economy is in such great shape. But Dr. Richebächer recommends that Americans remove the rose-colored glasses to see the U.S. economy for what it really is…"
09/27/06 - Past Bubble Experience Was Different
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "When bubbles burst, a ripple is sent through the whole economy - and the bubbles of today are much further-reaching that those of twenty or thirty years ago." 09/13/06 - A Tightening Farce
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Wall Street and investors can only be so optimistic, due to an almost universal expectation that the Federal Reserve has definitely stopped its rate hikes. This, essentially, assumes that further rate hikes were the greatest imminent risk to the economy and the markets - bonds, stocks and housing." 08/08/06 - By Far the Worst Recovery
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The U.S. economy is incomparably more vulnerable than in 2000. All the growth-impairing imbalances in the economy - the trade deficit, the savings and income shortage, and the debt levels - have dramatically worsened."
08/03/06 - A Credit Machine Running Amok
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The U.S. economy has become virtually immune to recession. It is widely as just a bursting of strength due to ingrained 'flexibility' and 'dynamism.'"
06/01/06 - The U.S. Consumption Bias
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The present U.S. economic recovery has never gained the traction that it needs for self-sustaining economic growth with commensurate employment and income growth." 04/19/06 - An Evasive Recovery
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The government and Federal Reserve have supported this recovery with unprecedented fiscal and monetary lavishness. Tax cuts reduced government revenue by $870 billion." 04/15/06 - What Next?
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The rate hikes at the short end curbed dollar-funded carry trade. But instead of closing their positions, many carry traders shifted their funding to the currencies with low interest rates - yen, euro and Swiss franc." 02/21/06 - Not Your Garden-Variety Economy
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The U.S. economy's downturn in 2001 had no relationship or similarity whatsoever to the customary 'garden-variety' cycle. Credit growth, far from slowing down, accelerated as never before."
11/14/05 - The True Greenspan Legacy
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "If Alan Greenspan jettisoned all inherited rules, he nevertheless chose one predominant rule, actually, his only rule: a strictly asymmetric policy pattern." 10/25/05 - America's Reality
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "All that is needed to stop the consumer borrowing-and-spending spree in its tracks is a halt to the rise in house prices, implicitly finishing the provision of increasing collateral for higher borrowing." 09/14/05 - The Fed's Wild Imagination
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "'Global savings glut.' You've heard members of the Federal Reserve refer to that term lately, but do you know what it really means? Luckily, the Good Doctor is here to explain." 07/19/05 - Debt, Dillusion, Deception
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The Fed continues to stand by their claim that the U.S. economy is just experiencing a "soft patch" that will be followed by high rates of economic growth. Dr. Richebächer stands firm in his belief, too." 07/07/05 - Bubble Anatomy
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "While economic optimists try to downplay America's non-existent economic recovery - Dr. Richebächer looks at financial development through a different lens - and sees a more permanent softness in the U.S. economy." 06/21/05 - Crippling "Wealth"
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Do inflating house prices truly enrich homeowners? Do they enrich the nation? Our short answer to both questions is a categorical no. The ugly truth is that both are impoverished. Dr. Richebächer explores." 05/26/05 - An Ominous Parallel
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The air of general unconcern over the current state of the U.S. economy is mystifying - especially with the unstable housing market and sky-high consumer debts. Dr. Richebächer explores." 04/19/05 - The Great Wealth Deception
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The U.S.'s economic recovery since 2001, despite what others may say, is practically non-existent. Dr. Richebächer wonders if this quest for an economic rebound has been abandoned - or simply delayed…" 03/29/05 - Structural Drags
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Many economists are still convinced of the United States' economic strength…but the Good Doctor shows us that the U.S economy's famous resilience is due to clever statistics and monetary looseness…" 02/02/05 - All Signs Point To Bubble
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "It is undisputed that the greater part of the escalating mortgage borrowing in the United States was for purposes other than house purchases. In short, it boosted consumption as a share of GDP at the expense…" 01/04/05 - Apocalypse Later
by Dr. Kurt Richeächer "The United States is richer and grows faster than euroland because productivity levels are higher and productivity growth stronger - right? Actually, no. Euroland's inferior GDP performance is attributable to a slower" 11/11/04 - A Hard Landing For The United States
by Dr. Kurt Richeächer "According to Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, the U.S. economy's slowdown in the second quarter was just a "soft patch" caused by the sharp rise of the oil price and "geopolitical" uncertainties. 10/25/04 - Booming Asia
by Dr. Kurt Richeächer "The point is that the large direct investments from the industrial countries grossly distort the trade picture. In China's trade statistics, these foreign direct investments show as imports of goods." 10/13/04 - The Kindness Of Strangers
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…The Asian central banks accommodate the credit excesses in the United States, and in doing so, fuel rampant credit excesses in their own countries…" 09/08/04 - The Great Macro Profit Illusion
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…The biggest surprise in the GDP data was the reported sharp slowdown in consumer spending to just 1% at annual rate…" 08/18/04 - The Plug Factor
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…It shocked us to see how readily and uncritically research institutions, economists and media around the world accepted these numbers at face value, even though they came like a bolt from the blue in the face…" 07/06/04 - A Most Savage Credit Crunch
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…In our view, the fate of the mortgage refinancing bubble and its further impact on the economy is presently the single-most important issue facing the U.S. economy…" 06/16/04 - It's The Bubbles, Dummy
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…As we have already said, the sudden rise in long-term U.S. rates, which started in mid-March, was not caused by bad news, but by unexpectedly good news…" 05/24/04 - A Grotesque Misnomer
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…The writing has been on the wall for years. In 1996 the American consumer increased his spending on current goods and services by $281 billion, with debt growth of $345.7 billion. In 2000 he spent $456.9 and borrowed…" 05/11/04 - Imbalances And Dislocations
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…For most American economists, sufficiently easy money is of infallible efficacy. The few instances in history when record-low interest rates persistently failed to work…" 04/15/04 - The Great Deluder
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…In the view of the bullish consensus, Mr. Greenspan has done a brilliant job in preventing a deeper and longer recession than might have been expected. This assessment, of course, ignore…" 03/24/04 - Policy Traction
by Dr. Kurt Richenbacher "In the past three years America has experienced an interest rate collapse, a record fiscal stimulus and the loosest monetary policy imaginable fueling money and credit creation at a scale that has no precedent in history…" 03/09/04 - Pulling Out The Rug
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The Greenspan Fed has discovered a new, amazingly easy and quick way to create higher consumer spending virtually from thin air - by way of so-called wealth creation through asset bubbles." 02/24/04 - Vindication For The Fed
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "There is a general perception that the anti-recession policies pursued by the government and the Federal Reserve during the last few years have been a great success. According to this mantra, America experienced." 02/20/04 - Corrupted Thinking In A Money Culture
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "In America's new money culture, policymakers and economists make no difference between wealth created through saving and investment in the real economy and wealth created in the markets through asset bubbles" 01/07/04 - How To Identify A Bubble
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "In a balanced economy, credit expansion is fully matched by available domestic savings. The decisive evil thing is [a] credit expansion that exceeds available domestic savings." 12/31/03 - A Bullish Mirage
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "For us the greatest uncertainties are about the U.S. economy, its financial system and its currency. The great issue not only for America but also for the global economy is whether the U.S. economy has definitely reached…" 12/11/03 - Japanese Phantom Growth
by Dr. Kurt Richebacher "How to reconcile [the Bank of Japan's] dismal description of the economic situation with the officially reported stellar real GDP growth rate of 3.9% for the second quarter?" 11/06/03 - The Emperor Has No Clothes
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…While a few economists have been warning that this recovery's actual pace may disappoint, our own view is that the U.S. economy's higher growth rate in the second quarter was totally deceptive." 09/24/03 - Employment Disaster
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "There has been much talk to the effect that America has just had its slightest recession in the whole postwar period. That is measured in real GDP growth, being bolstered by many statistical tricks." 09/09/03 - Ponzi Economy
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…This simple recognition - gross lack of saving and capital formation - is really at the root of our controversial and highly critical view of the U.S. economy's sanity and vitality." 08/21/03 - Waitign For Godot
by Dr. Kurt Richebacher "…The bullish consensus argues that the necessary conditions for the investment revival - above all, higher profits, higher cash flow and stronger balance sheets - are developing." 07/29/03 - An Open Mouth
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…There is still a third, unconventional instrument of which central bankers have made very different or no use of at all. It has sometimes been called a central bank's open-mouth policy." 07/10/03 - The Last Analysis
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…Our highly critical assessment of the U.S. economy's performance during the past two to three years, in fact, finds its major justification in the atrocious discrepancy that has developed between extremely…" 05/05/03 - Corporate Self Mutilation
By Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…To create wealth through rising asset prices is the one great fallacy and folly in America's shareholder value model. To create business profits through mergers and acquisitions and cost-cutting is the other big fallacy…" 04/08/03 - Macro Profit Killers
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…The steep slide of profits since 1997, happening against the backdrop of extreme monetary looseness, low interest rates and a booming economy, is shocking and indeed, portentous." 04/01/03 - Phantom Wealth
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "For the first time ever in the history of economic thinking, economists - that is, American economists - are claiming that growing asset prices represent fully valid wealth creation. This economic nonsense…" 03/17/03 - Forget Iraq
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…Most economists are clearly overstating the role of the Iraq 'jitters' in slowing the economy. In the same vein, they flatly ignore the implications of the severe economic and financial maladjustments…" 03/03/03 - A Critical Juncture
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…America's profit malaise is nothing new; it started in the late 1970s. Until then, profits of non-financial corporations had fluctuated around 8% of GDP. A steep plunge in the following years slashed it to half that level." 02/11/03 - Dollar Apocalypse
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "…The dollar index topped out a year ago. Starting very hesitantly and gradually, its fall has distinctly gathered momentum in recent months. Considering the resistance of the trade deficit" 02/06/03 - Capital Consumption
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "The key conditions for a high rate of saving and profits have been recklessly ravaged through policies that boosted consumption and financial leverage at the expense of corporate accumulation of productive capital." 01/21/03 - Panacea Du Jour
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "There seems to prevail a widely accepted view that credit creation makes old-fashioned saving from current income superfluous. As to the equal utter lack of interest in capital formation…" 01/13/03 - Calm Before The Storm
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's hype and extreme monetary looseness has created multiple bubbles. One of them is a highly resistant bubble of optimism." 12/04/03 - Pompous Claims V. Poor Reality
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Pompous claims of the superiority of the U.S. economy throughout the 90s contrast grotesquely with the miserable economic reality. Haven't we seen this picture before? Why, of course, we have: the Reagan years." 11/13/03 - Bubble Aftermath
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "For the first time in the whole postwar period, the U.S. economy has slumped against a backdrop of the most aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the most rampant money and credit growth ever." 10/28/03 - They Had It In Their Guts
by Dr. Kurt Richebächer "Blind faith is overwhelming bad and worsening facts, confirming our long-held suspicion that the American consensus does not understand the extraordinary excesses of Mr. Greenspan and the consumer…" 09/17/03 - Ominous Parallels
by Dr. Kurt Richebacher "Assessing the prospects of the American economy, the big split between consumer-related and investment-related activity is of greatest relevance." 06/26/03 - The Great Calamity Waiting to Happen
by Dr. Kurt Richebacher "Considering the astronomic size of foreign dollar holdings that have accumulated in past years, the stage is definitely set for a bandwagon against the dollar." | 
