The Rude Awakening
Wall Street, New York
Tuesday, September 6, 2005
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Tomorrow, we will return with our usual diet of wit,
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by Carl Swenlin [Ed. Note: Check out Carl's website, www.decisionpoint.com,
for all the market insight you need - apart from us here at
the Rude Awakening of course. 
Three weeks ago I wrote an article describing how sentiment
indicators (specifically the Rydex Cash Flow Ratio) were
showing that people had gotten too bearish too fast. Since
then, other sentiment indicators (Investors Intelligence
and AAII) have begun to show the same picture, and now our
primary internal indicators are also showing that the
decline from the August price top may have just about run
its course. The two bottom panels on the chart above give us a picture
of the condition breadth (the ITBM) and volume (the ITVM).
As you can see, both indicators have nearly reached the
lower limit of their bull market trading range. Those
limits are not sacred, but they do give us an idea of where
we should begin to look for a trading low. At the top of the chart is the S&P 500 Index, and I have
drawn lines across tops and bottoms that result in a
pattern known as an ascending wedge. This is a bearish
pattern and we should expect it to resolve downward;
however, it is not a particularly severe wedge, and there
is plenty of room for one or two more bounces off the top
and bottom before the pattern finally resolves. There is still room for prices (and internals) to decline a
bit more before the bottom is in place, but that would make
the likelihood of a rally even stronger. Also, there has
already been a short-term upside breakout on Wednesday (not
distinguishable on this chart) that may be the signal that
the rally has already begun. It is worth noting that a relatively minor price decline
has used up a considerable amount of negative internal
energy, and, even if the decline lasts a bit longer,
internal conditions will favor a rally just as support is
reached. That said, I do not have a wildly bullish outlook, because
the ascending wedge says that the good times are just about
over. I would not expect the rally to last more than a week
or two, just enough to get internals back to the neutral
zone. At that point the market may have a problem. [Ed. Note: When markets rally (and even when they don't),
Kevin Kerr is the man delivering the solid, reliable gains.
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